It has been nearly seven weeks since there was a lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.  The end of September appears to remain fairly quiet.  In fact, the National Hurricane Center has indicated there are no areas of potential tropical development for the rest of the month.

This is certainly great news, considering how active the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been.  As of September 26th, there have been 23 named storms.  The seasonal list of 21 names have all been used as well as 2 letters in the Greek alphabet.  All but 3 of the named storms have been the earliest on record for their particular letter in the alphabet.

With so many tropical systems, it was inevitable that some of them would impact the United States.  In fact, the 2020 hurricane season has tied the 1916 hurricane season as having the most landfalling tropical systems in U.S. history.  A total of 9 tropical storms and hurricanes made landfall in the United States, with the majority of them along the Gulf of Mexico shoreline.

Looking ahead to October, tropical activity tends to remain active.  Looking at past seasons gives us an indication of where the best conditions are for tropical development.  This includes much of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, as well as the warm waters off the coast of the Southeast United States.

The Climate Prediction Center in conjunction with other National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agencies—most notably the National Hurricane Center—has indicated in their long range forecast outlook that tropical development is likely during the first week of October.

There is high confidence that tropical development will occur in the southwestern Caribbean Sea region.  This also means that interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the latest forecast information throughout the next two weeks.  In addition, tropical wave activity off the coast of Africa bears watching in early October.  Tropical activity tends to decline into November, but this above-average season means that we cannot take anything for granted.

Join WeatherNation as we continue to monitor the tropics and bring you the latest forecast through the remainder of hurricane season.