Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

- Now, Turkey is sending its Syrian mercenaries to another reigniting conflict zone: The battle over Nagorno Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Renewed fighting erupted on September 27th when Azerbaijani forces (Turkish allies) attacked Armenian forces controlling the majority of Nagorno Karabakh territory. The forces of both sides have now been fully mobilized. This is another war of external party involvement. Armenians declared this territory their own in 1991, leading to a war between the two countries when the Soviet Union collapsed. Turkey’s involvement pits it against Armenian ally Russia, once again. Moscow has a military base in Armenia.

- On the natural gas scene, a geopolitical shakeup is brewing as natural gas is positioned to overshadow crude oil as the most important fuel in the world and as the key bridge fuel for a renewable energy transition. That means more power for Qatar over Saudi Arabia, for one. It also means a lot of power for Israel, which until very recently had zero energy leverage. Despite the fact that Libya is a crude oil giant, Turkey’s meddling here isn’t about Libya’s oil--it’s about Mediterranean gas and all the power that comes with getting a share of this. With that in mind, keep an eye on the emerging “Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum” which brings together previously unlikely bedfellows, including Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Cyprus,…