As we track a mid-week system heading into the Central U.S., our jet stream will dig as far south as the Gulf Coast which will bring the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms from the Texas through Florida Gulf Coast. Down near the surface, a strong cold front extending from northern tier of the country will also help fuel these storms.

Set-Up

There are 4 ingredients we need to enhance severe thunderstorms. Shear, Lift, Instability and Moisture. As we look at the forecast for Wednesday, we will have all of the ingredients necessary to enhance a risk for severe storms. Our jet stream dives southbound into Texas and Louisiana which will bring some shear.

Down at the surface, Gulf moisture and surface instability ahead of our cold front will bring the lift and moisture to help fuel these storms. Dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s which is an ample amount of moisture to bring thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Severe Threat

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk (level 1, on a scale of 0 to 5) for severe thunderstorms along the frontal boundary on Wednesday. This extends from southeastern Texas through the central Gulf coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and into the panhandle of Florida. As of right now, there is not a day 4 risk for severe storms but this threat for thunderstorms will continue to move towards the east coast into Thursday morning and midday so it will be an area to watch.

Forecast

Storms will likely initiate as temperatures warm up and our surface front moves into Texas and Louisiana. As we run into a more favorable environment for severe storms by mid-afternoon our thunderstorms will likely try to organize along the cold front.

By Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours the low level jet may try to kick in and keep these storms going through Mississippi and Alabama through the early morning hours.

Mid-morning, more storms continue across Georgia and into the Florida panhandle. On the northern side of this system, some of our forecast models are hinting at temperatures dropping significantly behind the front. For more on that read here. Note: there may be some snowflakes coming very far south just in time for Christmas eve!

By Christmas Eve, most of our rain and storms should start to push off into the Atlantic.

Forecast Accumulation

For the northern side of this forecast and the potential for snow make sure to check back into our website or watch us live on WeatherNation.

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