The USDA leaves its crop ending stocks numbers mostly unchanged; the market takes it as a negative report.

On Tuesday, the USDA released its March Supply/Demand Report.

As a result, the CME Group’s farm markets mostly dropped. Soybeans fell 6¢, corn down 4¢, and wheat up 4¢.

At the close, the May corn futures finished 1 1/4¢ lower at $5.46 1/2. July corn futures settled 1 1/4¢ lower at $5.34 3/4. New crop December corn futures closed 3 1/4¢ higher at $4.84 1/2. 
 
May soybean futures closed 6 1/4¢ higher at $14.40 1/2. July soybean futures closed 7 3/4¢ higher at $14.26 3/4. New crop November soybean futures closed 7 3/4¢ higher at $12.62 1/4.

May wheat futures finished 10¢ higher at $6.56 1/2. 

May soymeal futures settled $0.30 short term higher at $416.60.

May soy oil futures ended 1.09 higher at 53.55¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is -0.96 lower (-1.48%) at $64.09. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 278 points higher (+0.87%) at 32,080 points.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2020/21

The U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.50 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 1.47 billion and the USDA’s previous estimate of 1.502 billion.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean ending stocks at 120 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 117 million bushels and the USDA’s previous estimate of 120 million.

For wheat, the U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 836 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 839 million and the USDA’s February estimate of 836 million.

World Ending Stocks 2020/21

For corn, the USDA sees the world ending stocks at 287.7 million metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade’s estimate of 284 mmt. and the governmental agency’s February estimate of 286 mmt.

The world’s soybean ending stocks are pegged at 83.7 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 82.66 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 83.3 mmt.

Wheat’s world ending stocks are estimated at 301 mmt. vs. the  trade’s expectations of 304 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 304 mmt.

South America’s Production

In its report, the USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean output at 134 million metric tons vs. the trade’s expectation of 133 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 133.0 mmt.

For Argentina’s soybean production, the USDA estimates that country’s output at 47.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 47.4 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 48.0. mmt.

For corn, Brazil’s production is pegged at 109 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation at 108.3 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 109.0 mmt.

For Argentina, the USDA pegged that country’s corn output at 47.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 47.0 mmt. and the USDA’s February estimate of 47.5 mmt.

Trade Response

Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platts, head of grain and oilseed analytics, says that the USDA’s unchanged estimates are not a surprise. “As expected, no change to any of the three major U.S. balance sheets, as the USDA takes a breather this month. When the highlight of a WASDE is a 1¢ increase in the price of soybean oil, you know there’s nothing to talk about.”
 
Meter added, “Global ending stocks of corn were raised by 1 million metric tons on higher production, although neither Brazil nor Argentina saw any change in their production numbers. Chinese corn imports were flat at 24 mmt. Global soybean supply was barely changed with Brazil production up 1 mmt. to 134 mmt. while Argentina was down 0.5 mmt.”
 
“All in all, a pretty dull report and nothing for the bulls to hang their collective hat on,” Meyer says.

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, agrees that the USDA decided to punt in today’s report.

“Today’s WASDE reconfirms tightness in the soybean balance sheet, and kicks the can down the road on corn, leaving room for future adjustments that will likely tighten both corn and soybean supplies in the coming months,” Gilbertie says.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the report was no eye opener.

“The March USDA crop report, today, was neutral from last month’s crop report. The governmental agency left U.S. ending stocks unchanged for both corn and soybeans, Brazil soybean crop was increased by 1 mmt to 134 mmt, but Argentina crop reduced by .500 mmt to 47.5 mmt. World ending stocks were increased slightly for corn and soybeans. Weather in U.S. and SA will be closely watched the next 30 days along with planting intentions,” Roose says.