Chances for strong to severe storms will return to the Plains this weekend as an upper-level low slowly moves across the Rockies. The upper-low will provide wind shear to the Southern Plains on Saturday before moving to the Central and Northern Plains on Sunday. Flow out of the Southeast across the Plains will provide ample moisture for storms to form, with moderate instability expected in the warm daytime temperatures east of the Rockies.

Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday, mainly in New Mexico but a few severe storms are also possible in Western Texas and Southeastern Colorado. A marginal risk typically denotes potential for less organized severe storms but the risk could still increase as confidence in the forecast improves.

The SPC is not currently highlighting an area for Sunday but severe storms appear likely across the Central and Northern Plains.

Forecast

Scattered showers and storms will likely impact New Mexico Friday, with more robust storm coverage expected by Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the more likely threats though an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Showers and storms may be able to train over the same locations on Saturday which could pose a risk for flooding.

This story will be updated as new forecast data become available.